Background information:

• I will try to update this page around noon, daily. The time on a daily report indicates the last update for a given day (not the first posting time).
• This service was created to help those having to drive far to fly at Soboba. You can keep me motivated by making a donation or asking me to provide your next wing/harness.
• Chance of soaring...
  The focus is on forecasting late afternoon (last 3 hours of daylight) soaring conditions for paragliders. Percentage of chance is for an average PG pilot to be able to gain altitude from the 800' launch (limited hiking) in the last 3 daylight hours and soar for 30+ minutes. Don't expect to see a 100% chance of soaring, it will be about 80% at best. If the chance is 50% or more, I recommend going for it.
  If one's goal is a morning speed flight, most mornings are possible before 10:30 am when thermal activity starts mixing air from different altitudes.
  If one's goal is just a late afternoon speed wing flight or paragliding "sledder", their odds are much better than my soaring (gaining altitude) prediction.
  If one's goal is an early afternoon high-altitude paragliding flight in strong conditions, their odds are better than my late afternoon prediction since one relies more on thermals, less on wind.
  For past days, the percentage is a Hindsight (no longer a guess/forecast).
• Hindsight. These comments are "after the fact". Some likely ones:
  • Good & Sure: It was verified (some did) that one could launch from the 800' (or lower) in last 3 daylight hours and have a 30+ min flight.
  • Good & Guess: Best guess is that it was possible to launch from the 800' (or lower) in last 3 daylight hours and have a 30+ min flight.
  • Bad & Guess: Best guess is that it was not possible to launch from the 800' (or lower) in last 3 daylight hours and have a 30+ min flight.
  • Bad & Sure: It was verified (some tried) that one could not launch from the 800' (or lower) in last 3 daylight hours and have a 30+ min flight.
• Simpler URL for this page: http://www.ExpandingKnowledge.com/SobobaToday
• Forecasting tools: Soboba > Conditions.
• Ideal wind direction for soaring and aligned with the 650' and 1300' launches, is SW (South West). Best wind for training hill and 250' launch is WNW, so what is good for soaring (SW) may not be good for them and vice versa.
• Cross wind direction. Positive angle is clockwise. +45° means wind is 45° from your right on launch. -90° means wind is 90° from your left on launch.
• Santa Ana winds (More info). This happens mostly in autumn and winter, and we experience it at Soboba as ENE wind, and it is usually sunny then. Scenarios based on predicted ENE wind strength at mountain top height:
  • Light: ENE 7 mph or less at mountain top.
    Expect to see very light (1-4 mph) favorable (SW) wind at the 650' launch. Chance of soaring above mountain in convergence from anabatic flow (thermal breeze) and wind from behind. Expect a light horizontal wind shear layer near mountain top height. Likely to need to use a higher launch (800' or 1000') instead of usual 650'. Example: 2013/12/13 flight report. Should be OK for speed flying all day.
  • Moderate: ENE 8-24 mph at mountain top.
    Expect to see a light (5-7 mph) favorable (SW) wind at the 650' launch, due to a combination of rotor and thermal breeze, until an abrupt change around 1-2 hours before sunset. Expect a moderate to strong horizontal wind shear layer near mountain top height. I would personally avoid these conditions. Should be OK for speed flying in early morning (up to 11:00 am).
  • Strong: ENE 25 mph and over at mountain top.
    Expect to see unstable wind directions at the 650' launch. Expect a very strong horizontal wind shear layer near mountain top height. Conditions can become bad at any time during the day. Flying in these conditions is "asking for it". Visualization: YouTube > Wind tunnel experiment of airflow past a 3D-hill.

2013 Forecasting

Monday, 2012/12/31. 8:52am
Sunset at 4:50 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/5mph/2pm, NNW/6/3pm, NW/6/4pm, sunny, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts calm/4pm. RASP predicts SW/7knot/3pm but chart days possibly mixed up.
40% chance of soaring late afternoon. Conflicting wind predictions. Sun/convection may help produce an upslope breeze.
Tomorrow: Bad, NNE/E wind.
Wednesday+Thursday: Bad, NNE/NE wind.

Sunday, 2012/12/30. 7:35am
Sunset at 4:49 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/7mph/2pm, WNW/8/3pm, NW/8/4pm, mostly sunny / partly cloudy, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts WNW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts W/5knot/4pm.
35% chance of soaring late afternoon. Wind 45° to 90° cross from right. Maybe sun/convection will help straighten the breeze upslope. Better wind direction earlier than late in afternoon.
Tomorrow: Some chance, sunny, light wind in afternoon, but maybe not from a good direction.
Long range: Tuesday: Strong wind from NE. Celebrate the new year doing something else. Wednesday: NNE wind.

Saturday, 2012/12/29. 7:28am
Sunset at 4:48 pm. Weather.com predicts SSW/5mph/2pm, SSW/5/3pm, S/5/4pm, 30% chance of rain at 2pm then mostly cloudy at 3 & 4pm. NOAA predicts SW/3knot/4pm. RASP predicts SSW/13knot/4pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Weather.com predicting rain at noon and 2 pm, and mostly cloudy after, then evening showers (6-11pm).
Tomorrow: Post-frontal conditions: WNW (67° cross) wind at 8 mph and 0% chance of rain.
Long range: Monday to Wednesday: NNE/NE wind.

Friday, 2012/12/28. 10:35am
Sunset at 4:48 pm. Weather.com predicts N/1mph/2pm, calm/3pm, NNE/4/4pm, sunny/mostly sunny, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts ENE/10knot/4pm. RASP predicts ENE/13knot/4pm.
20% chance of soaring late afternoon. Warning: Over-the-back wind can create sudden change to turbulent air when it overpowers thermal activity mid/late afternoon.
Tomorrow: Pre-frontal conditions: S/SSW wind and 20% chance of rain, showers expected at 6pm.
Long range: Sunday: 10% chance of rain. NE wind. Monday-Tuesday: NNE/NE wind. Wednesday: Start of a warming trend (usually implies N/NE wind).

Thursday, 2012/12/27. 1:58pm
Sunset at 4:47 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/5mph/2pm, NW/5/3pm, WNW/8/4pm, mostly sunny, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts SW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts W/7knot/4pm.
30% chance of soaring late afternoon. Conflicting wind predictions.
Tomorrow: Bad: Santa Ana condition (NE wind), sunny.
Long range: Saturday: ENE wind. Sunday: 20% chance of rain. NNE wind.

Wednesday, 2012/12/26. 10:38am
Sunset at 4:46 pm. Weather.com predicts NNW/8mph/2pm, WNW/7/3pm, WNW/11/4pm, partly/mostly cloudy, 10-20% chance of rain. NOAA predicts W/7knot/4pm. RASP predicts W/14knot/4pm.
45% chance of soaring late afternoon. Wind 45-67° right cross, could be strong.
Tomorrow: Small chance of soaring, W-NW West wind (45-90° right cross), sunny.
Long range: Friday+Saturday: Bad: Light Santa Ana cycle. Sunday: 30% chance of rain.

Tuesday, 2012/12/25. 11:05am
Sunset at 4:46 pm. Weather.com predicts NNE/10mph/2pm, NE/6/3pm, NNE/5/4pm, cloudy / mostly cloudy, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts ENE/7knot/4pm. RASP predicts ENE/13knot/4pm.
15% chance of soaring late afternoon. Bad wind direction & cloudy (reduced thermals).
Tomorrow: Chance of soaring, but stronger-than-normal West wind (12+ mph on ground). Only 10% chance of rain in late afternoon.
Long range: Thursday: Bad, N wind. Friday: Bad, start of a Santa Ana cycle, with ENE wind.

Monday, 2012/12/24. 12:25pm
Sunset at 4:45 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/8mph/2pm, WSW/7/3pm, WNW/8/4pm, partly cloudy, 15% chance of rain. NOAA predicts SW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts S/7knot/4pm.
60% chance of soaring late afternoon. Reduced thermals due to wet/humid ground.
Tomorrow: Bad, cloudy and light ENE/NNE wind. Good for enjoying being with family.
Long range: Wednesday: 30% chance of rain. Thursday: Bad, NNW wind. Friday: Bad, start of a Santa Ana cycle.

Sunday, 2012/12/23. 1:25pm
Sunset at 4:44 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/4mph/2pm, SW/5/3pm, WSW/7/4pm, partly cloudy/sunny/cloudy, 15% chance of rain. NOAA predicts WNW/2knot/4pm. RASP predicts SSE/5knot/4pm.
50% chance of soaring late afternoon.
Tomorrow: Showers overnight ending by noon. Fair chance of soaring in West (45° right cross) wind in afternoon, partly cloudy. Note: It is typical to have West wind after the passage of a cold front.
Long range: Tuesday: Bad, cloudy and NE wind. Good for enjoying being with family without someone saying you missed out. Wednesday+Thursday: 30% chance of rain.

Saturday, 2012/12/22.
Sunset at 4:44 pm. Weather.com predicts WSW/6mph/2pm, WNW/6/3pm, WNW/7/4pm, partly cloudy, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts WNW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts W/6knot/4pm.
60% chance of soaring late afternoon. Better chance early (2pm) than late.
Tomorrow: Small chance of soaring, light West wind, mostly cloudy.
Long range: Monday: 50% chance of rain. Tuesday: Bad, mostly cloudy and NE wind. Wednesday+Thursday: 30% chance of rain.
Pilot report(s).

Friday, 2012/12/21.
Sunset at 4:43 pm. Weather.com predicts W/5mph/2pm, W/4/3pm, WNW/4/4pm, sunny / partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA predicts W/2knot/4pm. RASP predicts WSW/5knot/4pm.
50% chance of soaring late afternoon. Wind 45° cross from right and light. Better to launch from 800' (faces more West) than 650'.
Tomorrow: Chance of soaring, light West wind, mostly sunny.
Long range: Sunday: Chance of being soarable. Monday: 40% chance of rain.

Thursday, 2012/12/20.
Sunset at 4:43 pm. Weather.com predicts ENE/13mph/2pm, ENE/9/3pm, ENE/12/4pm, sunny, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts ENE/12knot/4pm. RASP predicts ENE/22knot/4pm.
5% chance of soaring late afternoon. Over-the-back wind, not safe to fly in wind shadow.
Tomorrow: Chance of soaring, but light West wind, partly cloudy / sunny.
Long range: Saturday + Sunday: Chance of being soarable.

Wednesday, 2012/12/19.
Sunset at 4:42 pm. Weather.com predicts NE/7mph/2pm, NE/7/3pm, NE/6/4pm, sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA predicts ENE/15knot/4pm. RASP predicts SE/5knot/4pm.
15% chance of soaring late afternoon. Wind advisory until 2pm, then still bad direction.
Tomorrow: Bad. Morning frost advisory. Light Santa Ana condition, with winds from E or NE.
Long range: Friday + Saturday: Bad, mild Santa Ana condition. Sunday: Chance of being soarable.

Tuesday, 2012/12/18.
Sunset at 4:42 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/11mph/2pm, WNW/14/3pm, WNW/11/4pm, partly cloudy, 15% chance of rain. NOAA predicts WSW/15knot/4pm. RASP predicts WSW/17knot/4pm.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon. Wet ground. Wind advisory from 2pm until 10pm (windy).
Tomorrow: Bad. Wind advisory for gusty NE wind between 4am-2pm, calmer NE wind between 2pm-4pm.
Long range: Thursday and Friday: Bad: Mild Santa Ana condition.

Monday, 2012/12/17.
Sunset at 4:42 pm. Weather.com predicts S/6mph/2pm, SSW/6/3pm, SSW/5/4pm, mostly sunny, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts S/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts WSW/5knot/4pm.
50% chance of soaring late afternoon. Light wind but mostly sunny. Free rides and flying this afternoon.
Tomorrow: Bad. 30% chance of overnight rain and through morning. 10-30% chance of rain late afternoon with strong WNW wind. Cold (51°F at 3pm).
Long range: Wednesday: Small chance of soaring. Thursday and Friday: Mild Santa Ana condition (not good).
Update, 11pm: It never got as sunny as predicted and winds stayed very light.
Pilot reports.

Sunday, 2012/12/16.
Sunset at 4:41 pm. Weather.com predicts SSW/4mph/2pm, WSW/4/3pm, W/4/4pm, mostly sunny /partly cloudy, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts WSW/1knot/4pm. RASP predicts SW/3knot/4pm.
50% chance of soaring late afternoon. Light wind and partly cloudy (weak thermals). Cold (57°F/3pm).
Tomorrow: Good chance of soaring late afternoon. Cold (58°F at 3pm). Free rides and flying on Monday afternoon.
Long range: Tuesday: 30% chance of rain and windy. Wednesday: Small chance of soaring, possible NE wind.
Update, 10pm: Forecast posted at 7:30am only indicated 10% chance of rain, but we had misting on/off during afternoon.

Saturday, 2012/12/15.
Sunset at 4:41 pm. Weather.com predicts WSW/7mph/2pm, WSW/8/3pm, WNW/7/4pm, sunny /partly cloudy, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts WSW/3knot/4pm. RASP predicts WNW/7knot/4pm.
60% chance of soaring late afternoon. Cold (56°F/3pm). No ride services in the afternoon.
Tomorrow: Good chance of soaring late afternoon. Cold (56°F at 3pm).
Long range: Monday: Some chance of soaring, but SE wind predicted. Tuesday: 30% chance of rain.

Friday, 2012/12/14.
Sunset at 4:40 pm. Weather.com predicts WSW/15mph/2pm, WSW/14/3pm, WSW/14/4pm, mostly cloudy, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts WSW/10knot/4pm. RASP predicts SW/12knot/4pm.
65% chance of soaring late afternoon. Good wind direction but could be strong, cold (54°F/3pm).
Tomorrow: Overnight rain, clearing by 9am. No ride services on Saturday afternoon. Good chance of soaring late afternoon (WSW/W wind at 6-7mph) with partly cloudy. Cold (56°F at 3pm).
Long range: Sunday: 30% chance of rain. Monday: SE wind predicted (not good).

Thursday, 2012/12/13.
Sunset at 4:40 pm. Weather.com predicts NNW/3mph/2pm, ESE/4/3pm, NNW/5/4pm, light rain / cloudy, 30-60% chance of rain. NOAA predicts ESE/3knot/4pm. RASP predicts NW/3knot/4pm.
5% chance of soaring late afternoon. Rain, Cold: 54°F. Good for the grass.
Tomorrow: Good chance of soaring (WSW wind at 12mph). Mostly cloudy but cold (50°F at 3pm).
Long range: Saturday: 40% chance of rain. Sunday: 30% chance of rain.

Wednesday, 2012/12/12.
Sunset at 4:40 pm. Weather.com predicts SSW/6mph/2pm, SSW/7/3pm, SW/7/4pm, mostly cloudy, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts SSW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts SW/12knot/4pm.
70% chance of soaring late afternoon. Cold: 60°F. More ridge soaring than thermic. Unlikely to have a repeat of near-sunset catabatic condition due to clouds today (interferes with mountain surface radiation to space).
Tomorrow: Do something else: Rain starting in the morning and lasting all day. Set your sprinkler rain delay.
Long range: Friday: Fair chance of soaring. Mostly sunny but cold (max of 58°F). Saturday: Small chance of soaring. Partly cloudy, cold (max of 60°F). Sunday: 30% chance of rain.
Flight report.

Tuesday, 2012/12/11.
Sunset at 4:40 pm. Weather.com predicts WSW/3mph/2pm, WSW/3/3pm, SSW/5/4pm, sunny, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts SE/1knot/4pm. RASP predicts WNW/3knot/4pm.
60% chance of soaring late afternoon. Light wind, but full sun. More thermic than ridge soaring.
Tomorrow: Chance of a soarable afternoon. Partly/mostly cloudy, cold (57 F at 3 pm).
Long range: Thursday: 50% chance of rain and cold. Friday: Some chance of soaring. Cold.
Flight report.

Monday, 2012/12/10.
Sunset at 4:39 pm. Weather.com predicts NNE/6mph/2pm, NNE/4/3pm, NNE/1/4pm, sunny, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts NE/8knot/4pm. RASP predicts ENE/7knot/4pm.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon. Bad wind direction.
Tomorrow: Fair chance of a soarable afternoon.
Long range: Wednesday, there is a chance. Thursday: Cold front (60% rain) and much colder.

Sunday, 2012/12/9.
Sunset at 4:39 pm. Weather.com predicts NNW/8mph/2pm, NNW/5/3pm, NNE/7/4pm, sunny, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts E/8knot/4pm. RASP predicts ENE/5knot/4pm.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon. Bad wind direction.
Tomorrow: Very low chance of a soarable afternoon: Bad wind direction.
Long range: Tuesday: Bad wind direction. Wednesday, there is a chance. Thursday: Cold front (40% rain) and much colder.

Saturday, 2012/12/8.
Sunset at 4:39 pm. Weather.com predicts W/5mph/2pm, NNW/3/3pm, NNW/5/4pm, sunny, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts WSW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts WSW/4knot/4pm.
40% chance of soaring late afternoon. Crosswind (Weather.com), but light. Sunny condition may help straighten slope breeze.
Tomorrow: Very low chance of a soarable afternoon: Strong Santa Ana wind condition.
Long range: Monday-Tuesday: Continued Santa Ana winds.
Flight report.

Friday, 2012/12/7.
Sunset at 4:39 pm. Weather.com predicts NNW/4mph/2pm, NNW/6/3pm, NNW/4/4pm, sunny, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts ?/0knot/4pm. RASP predicts N/3knot/4pm.
30% chance of soaring late afternoon. Hopefully convection/thermals wins over the light North wind.
Tomorrow: Good chance of a soarable afternoon: Weather.com predicts: Sunny, WSW wind (23° cross) at 6mph, 0% chance of rain. NOAA predicts us being on convergence line. RASP predict SW wind.
Long range: Sunday - Tuesday: Light NE wind (bad).

Thursday, 2012/12/6.
Sunset at 4:39 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/6mph/2pm, WNW/6/3pm, NNW/7/4pm, mostly sunny then sunny at 4pm, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts SW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts SW/3knot/4pm.
40% chance of soaring late afternoon. NOAA & RASP are promising, but trusted Weather.com is not favorable (and being downgraded as day progresses), nor current conditions at Crestline.
Tomorrow: Low chance of a soarable afternoon: Weather.com predicts: Sunny, NNW wind (115° cross) at 7mph, 0% chance of rain. NOAA & RASP predict nill or light wind.
Long range: Saturday and after: NE wind (bad).
Flight report.

Wednesday, 2012/12/5.
Sunset at 4:39 pm. Weather.com predicts W/6mph/2pm, W/6/3pm, W/5/4pm, mostly sunny then partly cloudy at 3pm & after, 0% chance of rain. NOAA predicts WNW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts WNW/3knot/4pm.
40% chance of soaring late afternoon. Wind 45-67° cross and light. Reduced thermals due to clouds.
Tomorrow: Some chance of a soarable afternoon: Weather.com predicts: Sunny, WNW wind (67° cross) at 7mph, 0% chance of rain. NOAA & RASP predict light SW wind.
Long range: Friday and weekend: NNE/NE wind (bad).

Tuesday, 2012/12/4.
Sunset at 4:39 pm. Weather.com predicts NW/5mph/2pm, NW/5/3pm, NW/6/4pm, mostly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA predicts E/8knot/4pm. RASP predicts ENE/11knot/4pm.
20% chance of soaring late afternoon. Bad wind direction. Reduced thermals due to clouds.
Tomorrow: Some chance of a soarable afternoon: Party cloudy, W wind (45° cross) at 6mph, 0% chance of rain.
Long range: Thursday: Looking good. Some chance in following days.

Monday, 2012/12/3.
Sunset at 4:39 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/7mph/2pm, WNW/6/3pm, WNW/6/4pm, mostly sunny at 2pm then partly cloudy, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts WSW/3knot/4pm. RASP predicts W/6knot/3pm.
30% chance of soaring late afternoon. 22-67° cross wind. Reduced thermals due to clouds.
Tomorrow: Low chance of a soarable afternoon: Mostly cloudy, WNW wind (67° cross) at 6mph, 0% chance of rain.
Long range: Wednesday: Start of a light Santa Ana cycle (bad wind).

Sunday, 2012/12/2.
Sunset at 4:39 pm. Weather.com predicts W/10mph/2pm, W/10/3pm, W/10/4pm, partly cloudy, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts WNW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts W/5knot/4pm.
55% chance of soaring late afternoon. 45° cross wind. Reduced thermals due to clouds.
Tomorrow: Low chance of a soarable afternoon: Mostly/Partly cloudy, WNW wind (67° cross) at 6mph, 10% chance of rain.
Long range: Monday: Start of a light Santa Ana cycle (bad).
Update, 10pm: Initial forecast posted at 4am (I had to leave very early) was way off, noon forecast changed to 60% rain at 4pm.

Saturday, 2012/12/1.
Sunset at 4:39 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/8mph/2pm, WNW/8/3pm, WNW/8/4pm, mostly then partly cloudy, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts NW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts WNW/9knot/4pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Bad wind direction. Reduced thermals due to clouds.
Tomorrow: Chance (slightly better than today) of a soarable afternoon: Partly cloudy, W wind (45° cross) at 9 mph, 10% chance of rain.
Long range: Monday: Start of a light Santa Ana cycle (bad).

Friday, 2012/11/30.
Sunset at 4:39 pm. Weather.com predicts WSW/7mph/2pm, W/7/3pm, W/7/4pm, cloudy, 10% chance of rain. NOAA predicts SW/5knot/4pm. RASP - Data unavailable.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Reduced/no thermals due to clouds and humid ground. Low ceiling?
Tomorrow: Low chance of a soarable afternoon: Mostly cloudy, WNW wind, 20% chance of rain.
Long range: Sunday: Low chance of soaring, NW, partly cloudy, 20% rain. Monday: Maybe soarable.

Thursday, 2012/11/29.
Sunset at 4:39 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/4mph/2pm, WSW/5/3pm, WSW/7/4pm, partly cloudy. NOAA predicts W/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts W/5knot/3pm.
35% chance of soaring late afternoon. Reduced thermals due to clouds and humid ground.
Tomorrow: Possible morning showers. Low chance of a soarable afternoon: Mostly cloudy, light wind.
Long range: Saturday: Small chance of soaring, mostly cloudy. Sunday: 30% chance of rain. Santa Ana cycle (bad wind direction) starting Monday.

Wednesday, 2012/11/28.
Sunset at 4:39 pm. Weather.com predicts SW/6mph/2pm, WSW/6/3pm, WSW/6/4pm, sunny / partly cloudy. NOAA predicts SW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts SW/5knot/4pm.
65% chance of soaring late afternoon. Launch early before clouds reduce thermals. Light wind.
Tomorrow: Possible overnight showers. Chance of a soarable afternoon: Decent wind direction but light, mostly cloudy, 10-20% chance of rain.
Long range: Friday through Sunday: Chance of soaring, some cloudiness, small chance of rain.

Tuesday, 2012/11/27.
Sunset at 4:39 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/5mph/2pm, WNW/5/3pm, WNW/6/4pm, mostly cloudy. NOAA predicts WSW/2knot/4pm. RASP predicts WSW/4knot/4pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Cloudy and light wind.
Tomorrow: Fair chance of a soarable afternoon: Decent wind direction and speed, only partly cloudy, but 20% chance of rain.
Long range: Small chance of soaring on following days. Some cloudiness, iffy wind direction, small chance of rain.

Monday, 2012/11/26.
Sunset at 4:40 pm. Weather.com predicts SW/6mph/2pm, WSW/6/3pm, W/5/4pm, sunny. NOAA predicts WNW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts WNW/4knot/4pm.
35% chance of soaring late afternoon.
Tomorrow: Chance of a soarable afternoon.
Long range: Chance of soaring on following days. Small possibility of rain starting Friday.

Sunday, 2012/11/25.
Sunset at 4:40 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/7mph/2pm, NNW/6/3pm, WNW/5/4pm, sunny. NOAA predicts SSW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts SW/5knot/4pm.
30% chance of soaring late afternoon.
Tomorrow: Chance of a soarable afternoon, WSW/2pm and WNW/4pm, so launch early.
Long range: Some chance of soaring on following days. Possibility of rain starting Friday.
Update, 1:25 pm: North wind component persisting longer than predicted: Weather.com data above updated, forecast downgraded.

Saturday, 2012/11/24.
Sunset at 4:40 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/5mph/2pm, WNW/5/3pm, WNW/5/4pm, sunny. NOAA predicts ENE/10knot/4pm. RASP predicts ENE/11knot/4pm.
15% chance of soaring late afternoon. Moderate over-the-back (ENE) or cross (WNW) wind.
Tomorrow: Good chance of a soarable afternoon.
Long range: Chance of soaring on following days. Rain predicted later in the week.

Friday, 2012/11/23.
Sunset at 4:41 pm. Weather.com predicts ENE/6mph/2pm, NE/5/3pm, NE/4/4pm, sunny. NOAA predicts E/15knot/4pm. RASP predicts ENE/23knot/4pm.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon. Strong over-the-back wind.
Tomorrow: Bad wind direction, not as windy.
Long range: Small chance on Monday+Tuesday, .

Thursday, 2012/11/22.
Sunset at 4:41 pm. Weather.com predicts NNE/3mph/2pm, NE/3/3pm, ENE/4/4pm, sunny. NOAA predicts E/10knot/4pm. RASP predicts ENE/14knot/4pm.
15% chance of soaring late afternoon. Do you like lee-side thermals?
Tomorrow: Bad wind direction (over the back).
Long range: Bad wind direction (East wind component) through at least Saturday.

Wednesday, 2012/11/21.
Sunset at 4:41 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/5mph/2pm, WNW/5/3pm, WNW/5/4pm, sunny. NOAA predicts WNW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts WNW/5knot/4pm.
35% chance of soaring late afternoon. Bad wind direction (slipping along mountain) according to all above predictors.
Tomorrow: Bad wind direction (over the back).
Long range: Bad wind direction (East wind component) through at least Saturday.

Tuesday, 2012/11/20.
Sunset at 4:42 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/5mph/2pm, WNW/4/3pm, WNW/5/4pm, sunny. NOAA predicts NW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts WSW/5knot/4pm.
40% chance of soaring late afternoon. Bad wind direction according to Weather.com and NOAA, good according to RASP.
Tomorrow: Small chance.
Long range: Bad wind direction (East wind component) through Thursday of next week.
Update, 1:30 pm: Very light SW wind at my house, going for it.
Flight report.

Monday, 2012/11/19.
Sunset at 4:42 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/6mph/2pm, WNW/6/3pm, NW/6/4pm, sunny. NOAA predicts NW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts WNW/5knot/4pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Bad wind direction. For the optimist: Maybe sun/convection will produce an upslope breeze at times.
Tomorrow: WNW (not good) similar to today.
Long range: A chance for Wednesday, then bad wind direction (NNE/NE) up to Sunday.

Sunday, 2012/11/18.
Sunset at 4:43 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW/7mph/2pm, WNW/7/3pm, WNW/8/4pm, sunny. NOAA predicts NW/10knot/4pm. RASP predicts NW/8knot/4pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Bad wind direction. For the optimist: Maybe sun/convection will produce an upslope breeze at times.
Tomorrow: WNW/NW (not good) similar to today.
Long range: Bad wind direction (NNE/NE) for a week.

Saturday, 2012/11/17.
Sunset at 4:43 pm. Weather.com predicts WSW/6mph/2pm, WSW/7/3pm, WSW/7/4pm, partly cloudy, isolated thunderstorms. NOAA predicts WSW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts SW/9knot/4pm.
20% chance of soaring late afternoon. Risk of rain.
Tomorrow: WNW (not good) but sunny.
Long range: Bad wind direction for a week+.
Update, 1:30 pm: Sprinkling at 1pm and now 30% chance of thunderstorms by end of afternoon.

Friday, 2012/11/16.
Sunset at 4:44 pm. Weather.com predicts W/4mph/2pm, WSW/5/3pm, W/5/4pm, partly cloudy / sunny. NOAA predicts SW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts SW/5knot/4pm.
65% chance of soaring late afternoon.
Tomorrow: Possible soaring and last good day for a wile.
Long range: WNW (not good) Sunday and wind direction getting worse on following days.

Thursday, 2012/11/15.
Sunset at 4:44 pm. Weather.com predicts SSW/7mph/2pm, SSW/6/3pm, SSW/6/4pm, cloudy/mostly cloudy. NOAA predicts SW/5knot/4pm. RASP predicts WSW/5knot/4pm.
35% chance of soaring late afternoon. Weak lift: Light wind (weak lift band), mostly cloudy (weak thermals).
Tomorrow: Possible soaring: W wind, partly cloudy. 10-20% chance of rain.
Long range: Maybe good Saturday (but 20% chance of rain) and Sunday. Iffy on Monday (WNW wind).

Wednesday, 2012/11/14.
Sunset at 4:45 pm. Weather.com predicts SW/5mph/2pm, WSW/5/3pm, W/5/4pm, partly/mostly cloudy. NOAA predicts WSW/1knot/4pm. RASP predicts ENE/10knot/4pm.
40% chance of soaring late afternoon. Weak lift: Light wind from WSW (weak lift band), mostly cloudy (weak thermals). Also possible ENE interferes (RASP prediction).
Tomorrow: Possible soaring: SSW wind, but mostly cloudy.
Long range: Chance of soarable (not Santa Ana conditions) Friday through Monday, but with cloudiness.

Tuesday, 2012/11/13.
Sunset at 4:45 pm. Weather.com predicts ENE / 6 mph / 2 pm, NE/5/3pm, NE/4/4pm, sunny. NOAA predicts E / 15 knot / 4 pm. RASP predicts ENE / 20 knot / 4 pm.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon. ENE wind (over the back), either light (Weather.com) or strong (NOAA & RASP).
Tomorrow: Possible soaring: Light SW wind but party cloudy.
Long range: Cloudy Thursday, possibly good Friday through Monday.

Monday, 2012/11/12.
Sunset at 4:46 pm. Weather.com predicts NNE / 7 mph / 2 pm, N/6/3pm, N/6/4pm, sunny. NOAA predicts ENE / 20 knot / 4 pm. RASP predicts ENE / 15 knot / 4 pm.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon. NE wind (over the back), either light (Weather.com) or strong (NOAA & RASP).
Tomorrow: Similar to today (bad), slightly less strong wind.
Long range: So-so conditions: E, SE, and S wind to wrap up the week.

Sunday, 2012/11/11.
Sunset at 4:47 pm. Weather.com predicts NE / 7 mph / 2 pm, NE/6/3pm, NE/6/4pm, sunny. NOAA predicts ENE / 15 knot / 4 pm. RASP predicts ENE / 15 knot / 4 pm.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon. NE wind (over the back), either light (Weather.com) or strong (NOAA & RASP).
Tomorrow: Similar to today (bad).
Long range: Santa Ana condition continues until Tuesday/Wednesday. SE and S winds after.

Saturday, 2012/11/10.
Sunset at 4:47 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW / 17 mph / 2 pm, WNW/16/3, WNW/16/4, partly cloudy / sunny, 20% chance of rain at 2 pm and 0% after. NOAA predicts WNW / 20 knot / 4 pm. RASP predicts NW / 8 knot / 4 pm.
15% chance of soaring late afternoon. Strong wind (blown out for paragliding?) and at 67 degree cross and cold (61 F at 2 pm).
Tomorrow: Bad: Santa Ana's (NE wind flow) starting. OK for early morning speed flying.
Long range: Santa Ana condition continues until Tuesday.

Friday, 2012/11/9.
Sunset at 4:48 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW / 12 mph / 2 pm, W/14/3, W/13/4, partly cloudy, 20% chance of rain. NOAA predicts W / 10 knot / 4 pm. RASP predicts W / 18 knot / 4 pm.
20% chance of soaring late afternoon. Windy and at 45 degree cross and cold (60 F at 2 pm).
Tomorrow: Bad: Early morning rain, stronger wind than today, more cross direction (WNW), cold (60 F).
Long range: Santa Ana's (NE wind flow) starting Sunday.

Thursday, 2012/11/8.
Sunset at 4:49 pm. Weather.com predicts SSW / 9 mph / 2 pm, WSW/9/3, SSW/9/4, partly/mostly cloudy. NOAA predicts SSW / 10 knot / 4 pm. RASP predicts SSW / 10 knot / 4 pm.
50% chance of soaring late afternoon. Partly cloudy will not help thermals/convection (but expect smoother air), so base wind direction is more important today.
Tomorrow: Stronger-than-normal West wind and cold (60 F) late afternoon.
Long range: Low chance (WNW) and cold Saturday, Santa Ana's starting Sunday.

Wednesday, 2012/11/7.
Sunset at 4:50 pm. Weather.com predicts W / 8 mph / 2 pm, W/8/3, W/7/4, Sunny. NOAA predicts W / 10 knot / 4 pm. RASP predicts SW / 5 knot / 4 pm.
60% chance of soaring late afternoon.
Tomorrow: Even better chance it may be soarable.
Long range: Windy (WSW) & cold Friday, possible & cold Saturday, Santa Ana's starting Sunday.

Tuesday, 2012/11/6.
Sunset at 4:50 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW / 4 mph / 2 pm, WNW/4/3, WSW/6/4, Sunny. NOAA predicts WNW / 5 knot / 4 pm. RASP predicts WSW / 3 knot / 4 pm.
65% chance of soaring late afternoon.
Tomorrow: Fair chance it may be soarable.
Long range: Good Thursday, windy (WSW) & cold Friday, low chance & cold Saturday, weak Santa Ana's starting Sunday.
Flight report.

Monday, 2012/11/5.
Sunset at 4:51 pm. Weather.com predicts NE / 6 mph / 2 pm, NE/6/3, NE/5/4, Sunny. NOAA predicts SE / 5 knot / 4 pm. RASP predicts SSE / 4 knot / 4 pm.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon.
Tomorrow: Fair chance it may be soarable.
Long range: Possibly good Wednesday through Friday.

Sunday, 2012/11/4.
Sunset at 4:52 pm. Weather.com predicts NNE / 6 mph / 2 pm, NNE/6/3, NNE/6/4, Sunny. NOAA predicts E / 15 knot / 4 pm. RASP predicts ENE / 15 knot / 4 pm.
5% chance of soaring late afternoon.
Tomorrow: Bad, NE wind.
Long range: Santa Ana (NE flow = bad) cycle continues through Tuesday. Good Wednesday through Friday.

Saturday, 2012/11/3.
Sunset at 5:53 pm. Weather.com predicts SSW / 6 mph / 3 pm, W/6/4, NW/7/5, Sunny. NOAA predicts E / 15 knot / 5 pm. RASP predicts ENE / 5 knot / 5 pm.
20% chance of soaring late afternoon. Conflicting forecasts. Set you clocks back an hour tonight.
Tomorrow: Bad, North wind.
Long range: Santa Ana (NE flow = bad) cycle continues through Tuesday.

Friday, 2012/11/2.
Sunset at 5:54 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW / 5 mph / 3 pm, WNW/6/4, NW/6/5, Sunny. NOAA predicts WNW / 10 knot / 5 pm. RASP predicts WNW / 5 knot / 5 pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon.
Tomorrow: Fair chance of soaring at 3 pm in SW wind, but turning NW by 5 pm.
Long range: Santa Ana (NE flow = bad) cycle Sunday through Tuesday.

Thursday, 2012/11/1.
Sunset at 5:55 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW / 5 mph / 3 pm, WNW/6/4, W/7/5, Partly Cloudy. NOAA predicts W / 5 knot / 5 pm. RASP predicts W / 5 knot / 5 pm.
40% chance of soaring late afternoon. Partly cloudy will not help convection straighten the breeze.
Tomorrow: Similar chance (W/WNW wind).
Long range: Santa Ana (NE flow = bad) cycle starting on Saturday.

Wednesday, 2012/10/31.
Sunset at 5:56 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW / 6 mph / 3 pm, W/7/4, WSW/7/5, Sunny. NOAA predicts WSW / 5 knot / 5 pm. RASP predicts W / 4 knot / 5 pm.
60% chance of soaring late afternoon. Light wind my allow convection to dominate.
Tomorrow: Slightly worse chance (W/WNW wind).
Long range: Friday still possible, then Santa Ana (NE flow = bad) cycle starting on Saturday.
Update, 8:30 pm: Weather.com and NOAA had good forecast: Soarable starting at 4 pm.

Tuesday, 2012/10/30. Posted at 1 am.
Sunset at 5:57 pm. Weather.com predicts W / 7 mph / 3 pm, W/6/4, W/6/5, Sunny. NOAA predicts W / 5 knot / 5 pm. RASP predicts W / 3 knot / 4 pm.
50% chance of soaring late afternoon. Light wind my allow convection to dominate.
Tomorrow: Similar chance (W wind again).
Long range: Thursday may be the better day, then new Santa Ana (NE flow) cycle starting on Saturday.
Update, 4 pm: Weather.com was correct with their W forecast: Observed W at 6mph at 3:45 pm. Now predicts WNW at 6 mph at 5 pm.

Monday, 2012/10/29.
Sunset at 5:58 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW / 5 mph / 3 pm, W/6/4, W/6/5, Sunny. NOAA predicts W / 5 knot / 5 pm. RASP predicts WNW / 5 knot / 5 pm, but with us at bottom of an eddy (East flow in Banning pass).
50% chance of soaring late afternoon. Light wind my allow convection to dominate.
Tomorrow: Similar chance.
Long range: Similar or better chance up to Friday, then new Santa Ana (NE flow) cycle starting on Saturday.
Update, 12:35 pm: Weather.com now predicting WNW at 4-5 mph between 2-5 pm, NW at 6 pm. ==> 40% chance of soaring.
Update, 7 pm: Weather.com was spot-on with their WNW forecast, perfect wind for the training hill in late afternoon.

Sunday, 2012/10/28.
Sunset at 5:59 pm. Weather.com predicts W / 5 mph / 3 pm, WSW/4/4, W/6/5, Sunny. NOAA predicts SW / 5 knot / 5 pm. RASP predicts light wind (middle of a counter-clockwise eddy) at 5 pm.
65% chance of soaring late afternoon.
Tomorrow: Not as good, more of a West flow.
Update, 1:45 pm: Weather.com now predicting WNW at 4-5 mph all afternoon. ==> 40% chance of soaring.
Update, 7 pm: 3 people launched around 4:30pm, only 1 able to soar for a while, so chance of soaring in retrospect was 33%.

Saturday, 2012/10/27. Creation of this web page.
Weather.com predicts NNE 7 mph at 4 and 5 pm. NOAA predicts ENE at 5 pm. RASP predicts ENE at 5 pm.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon.
Tomorrow is looking good for late afternoon soaring.

Friday, 2012/10/26
Weather.com predicts ENE at 13 mph at 3pm, NNE 15 at 4 pm, NE 13 at 5 pm. Bad. NOAA predicts East 20 knot at 5 pm. RASP puts us at the top of a swirl, with strong East flow in Beaumont.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon. I recommend: Make other plans than late afternoon soaring today.
Saturday: Does not look good, with a 10 mph NE wind in the afternoon. Sunday: Light ENE predicted.

Thursday, 2012/10/25
Yesterday’s prediction was mostly true, but with a small window for a few pilots to fly 20-30 minutes early afternoon. Today… Weather.com predicts NNW at 3 and 4 pm, N at 5 pm. Bad. NOAA shows East wind at 5 pm. Bad. RASP predicts NE wind for late afternoon. Also Weather.com states: High Wind Warning from Thu, 8pm until Sat, 5am PDT.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon. And would advise caution against the building general NE flow.
Long range: Strong wind tomorrow (do something else) and return to flyable next Tuesday (according to Weather.com).

Wednesday, 2012/10/24
Sunset at 6:03 pm. Yesterday, RASP produced the best prediction: Good flying. Today… Weather.com predicts WNW all afternoon. Not good, we want SW. Full sun though. NOAA wind barbs also suggest WNW at 5 pm. RASP also predicts WNW at 4 and 5 pm.
20% chance of soaring late afternoon. Considering full sun helping convection.
Long range: Crappy, as we start tomorrow (Thursday) a moderately strong Santa Ana condition lasting a few days.

Tuesday, 2012/10/23
Sunset at 6:04 pm. Weather.com predicts WNW all afternoon. Not good, we want SW. But rigth now it is SW at 3 mph. Sunny predicted for this afternoon (helps convection to produce upslope breeze). NOAA predits W at 5 pm. RASP predicts SW between 4 and 6 pm.
50% chance of soaring late afternoon.
North winds expected to start on Thursday, with the warm-up.
Flight report.

Monday, 2012/10/22
Sunset at 6:05 pm. Weather.com predicts W wind for late afternoon (4 & 5 pm). SW would have been better. 71 F at 4 pm. Full sun in late afternoon = thermals. NOAA wind barbs show WSW at 5 pm. RASP (working again) shows W at 4 pm, WSW at 5 pm.
70% chance of soaring late afternoon.
Get it while you can, tomorrow slightly worse than today and warming trend that starts on Wednesday (mild Santa Ana condition with bad wind direction).

Sunday, 2012/10/21
Weather.com predicts mostly cloudy (reduced thermalling), WSW wind at 3 pm and W at 4 and 5 pm (we want SW). Sunset at 6:06 pm. NOAA wind barbs predict SW 10 knot at 5 pm. Ideal. RASP is broken: Using “Sunday 21 Oct – Today 4Km”, for time of 1600 we get data for saturday (yesterday), for time 1700 we get last wednesday data, for time 1800 we get data for Sunday of a week ago.
50% chance of soaring late afternoon. But expect a low ceiling of clouds and reduced thermalling. But speed flyers should enjoy today. Rain should not be a problem, only 10% chance.

Saturday, 2012/10/20
Forecast still looking good for today… Weather.com predicts WSW at 4 and 4 pm and SW at 6 pm. Close to the ideal SW direction. NOAA wind barbs show SSW or SW at 5 pm. Ignore RASP, which is stuck on displaying Wednesday’s graph when you choose “Today 4Km”. Other selections like “Today – Latest data – 1.3Km” show appropriate day plots. Sunset is at 6:07 pm.
80% chance of soaring late afternoon. Sweet spot for launching would be around 3:30 pm (2.5 hour before sunset) or 4 pm. Since Weather.com predicts partly cloudy starting at 4 pm, thermals will be more mellow than usual at the end of the day. Free rides this weekend for those who come early to help prepare our grass areas by leveling the surface and picking off rocks.

Friday, 2012/10/19
Yesterday, all predictor websites were wrong. it just stayed NW all late afternoon. Today sunset at 6:08 pm and … Weather.com predicts WNW all afternoon. We want SW. NOAA wind barbs show NW at 10 knot at 5 pm. RASP predicts a switch from WNW at 4pm to strong ENE at 5pm and 6 pm.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon. Weekend: Cooling temperatures and possibly good wind direction. Small chance of rain.

Thursday, 2012/10/18
Weather.com predicts near ideal conditions for soaring late afternoon: SW at 4 and 5 pm (7-8 mph) and WSW at 6 pm. Sunset is 6:09 pm. NOAA wind barbs also predicts SW, at 10 knot. RASP predicts SW to WSW, but with wind possibly strong at 5 and 6 pm.
80% chance of soaring late afternoon.
Long range: Friday, not so good with WNW predicted late afternoon.
Saturday + Sunday: Promising with general SW wind flow predicted.

Wednesday 2012/10/17
Weather.com predicts E and ENE in late afternoon. Bad. NOAA wind barbs predict E, and somewhat strong. Bad. RASP also predict E. Bad.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon. So not a good day for soaring late afternoon at Soboba. The optimist can hope for a sledder before sunset, when thermal activity stops. High possibility of dust devils in the LZ today, and gusting winds.

Tuesday, 2012/10/16
Weather.com predicts NNW at 4 the WNW at 5 and 6 pm. Bad, we want SW. NOAAw ind barbs predicts WNW at 5 pm. Bad. RASP predicts E form 4 to 6 pm. Bad.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon. If you are an optimist, the hope is that wind would be light and local heating/convection would produce an upslope breeze and not have a shear at the top of the mountain.

Monday, 2012/10/15
Weather.com and NOAA wind parbs are predicting W wind (we want SW) for late afternoon (4-5 pm). Weather.com predicts WNW at 6pm. So not great, but not impossible. But RASP predicts East wind between 4 and 6 pm. Bad.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon.

Sunday, 2012/10/14
Weather.com predicts light North winds this afternon. NOAA wind brbs predicts East wind. RASP also predicts East wind. Thank you Alan for fixing the graphs for late afternoon (5 and 6 pm).
10% chance of soaring late afternoon.

Saturday, 2012/10/13
Great conditions for the work party starting at 10 am… Weather.com predict a maximum temperature of 79 F, and winds from WNW (perfect for working, we do not want flyable SW winds to cause distractions). Only 10% chance of rain until 2pm and 0% after. NOAA wind barbs also predict a refreshing NW wind at 5 pm to eliminate any flying distractions. RASP predictor still broken for 5 and 6 pm, only indicating swirling winds at 4 pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Come join this historic work party, you will be proud you did.

Friday, 2012/10/12
Iffy day… Weather.com predicts WNW (we want SW) partly cloudy at 4 and 5 pm, W at 6 pm. Not good. NOAA wind barbs show generaly West at 5 pm. So-so. RASP is optimistic with SW surface winds at 4pm, but no data for 5 and 6 pm (broken for last few days).
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Based on varying wind predictions and that reduced convection (partly cloudy) will limit the convection breeze influence.
Saturday does not look good at this time with weathe.com predicting WNW at 4 and 5 pm, NW at 6pm. We want SW. But great weather for the work party (sunny and 81 F max) starting at 10 am.
Sunday looks bad for flying with Santa Ana winds.

Thursday, 2012/10/11
Weather.com predicts WSW up to 4pm, W after. NOAA and RASP predict a favorable wind direction (SW) for late afternoon.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon. Just based on the high probability of rain and T-storm (65% chance at 2 pm) this afternoon, paragliding would not be on my to-do list for this afternoon.
Weekend forecast for paragliding: Bad.
Friday (tomorrow): Weather.com predicts W and WNW (we want SW) late afternoon. Sunny starting at noon, but maybe trail maintenance will be needed if it rained significantly.
Saturday & Sunday: is the return of Santa Ana wind conditions (North wind).
The good news: For the work party on Saturday, the max temperature will only be 81 F, and the predicted North wind will make you happy to be on the ground. Join me on this event to be remembered, so you can say “I helped doing this”.

Sunday, 2012/10/7
Weather.com predicts WSW at 4 and 5 pm, then W at 6 pm. We want SW. Not bad if one launches between 4 and 5 pm. No clouds predicted so convection should also help straighten the breeze. NOAA wind barbs predict SW at 5 pm. Ideal. RASP predicts SW from 4 pm to 6 pm. Ideal.
80% chance of soaring late afternoon.

Saturday, 2012/10/6
Weather.com predicts WSW (we want SW) at 4 and 5 pm and partly cloudy, then W at 6pm. NOAA wind barbs predict W or WNW at 5pm. RASPpredicts WNW at 4 and 5 pm, then convergence upon us with WSW-SW at 6pm.
50% chance of soaring late afternoon. Relying/hoping that Weather.com is correct. But “partly cloudy” skies reduce the local convection that “straightens out” the local breeze.
Tomorrow is looking slightly better, thanks in part to full sunlight.

Friday, 2012/10/5
Weather.com predicts WNW at 3 pm, WSW at 4 and 5 pm and West at 6 pm. We want SW, so decent for 4 and 5 pm. NOAA wind barbs indicate W surface wind at 10 knot at 5 pm. Not ideal, not totally bad. RASP 10 meter surface winds indicate WNW wind flow between 4 and 6 pm. Bad.
50% chance of soaring late afternoon. If you trust RASP, today should NOT be good for soaring in the late afternoon. If you mainly trust Weather.com and NOAA, expect a 65% chance of soaring in the late afternoon. Considering the partly cloudy (less solar heating) afternoon forecast from Weather.com that gives less chance for the local convection to straighten out the breeze.
Update:
So it looks like for today (Friday) Weather.com did come through, blowing WSW at of 5 pm (according to “right now” conditions in San Jacinto, and at my house 2 miles West of LZ). The switch from WNW to WSW happened about an hour later than predicted this morning. It is partly cloudy (as predicted), which is reducing the thermic activity, so maybe not easy to “bench up” from the lower launches.

Thursday, 2012/10/4
Weather.com predicts WSW (we want SW) all afternoon until it turns W at 6 pm. NOAA wind barbs predict WSW at 5 pm. RASP predicts WNW at 4pm, W at 5pm and WSW at 6pm with the convergence line then upon us.
50% chance of soaring late afternoon. Considering local convection (no cloud predicted this afternoon) will help straighten the breeze. Expect some cross-wind from the right on launch during late afternoon. Outlook for Friday: Worse. Winds predicted to be more from the West (we want SW). Hey, at least the temperature is cooler now (upper 80?s).
Weekend outlook: Saturday and Sunday could be better than today and Friday, with a general SW flow predicted.

Tuesday, 2012/10/2
Weather.com predicts WSW (we want SW) at 4 pm and W after (5 and 6 pm) NOAA wind barbs show WSW at 5pm RASP shows an ideal SW betwen 4 and 6 pm. Ideal.
70% chance of soaring late afternoon.

Monday, 2012/10/1
Today… Easy call: Weather.com, NOAA and RASP indicate that the wind would be somewhere between WNW and NNE (all bad directions) for this late afternoon. A hot day too (102 F predicted in the shade). So I recommend you shine at work instead.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon.
Long range: Tomorrow (Tuesday) is a transition day, with predicted West wind (we want SW) so maybe a 50% chance of soaring, but after that there could be a string of good soaring days.

Sunday, 2012/9/30
Unless there is an unexpected change, on Sunday I recommend you tell your spouse: “Honey I love you so much I’d rather spend the day with you than go flying“. You will earns lots of points. Probably a repeat for Monday.
Update
Lots of conflicting forecasts today… Weather.com predicts light (6 mph) NNE at 4pm and 5mph SE at 5pm, not good directions in either case. soaringpredictor.info flips from E at 2 mph at 4pm to W at 3 mph at 5pm (we want SW). And indicates big altitude gains of 8k over launch. NOAA wind barbs puts us close to a no-wind situation at 5pm, but we can average as light West wind (we want SW). RASP indicate an East flow at about 10 knot at 5 pm. Bad.
Making sense of the above: We are under a light Santa Ana condition (offshore flow from NE). If the wind comes directly over-the-back, we can be in perfect wind shadow at launch and in the LZ with almost no wind, or a side-slip wind to balance and offset from a directly over-the-back wind (NNE wind would add a NW wind component to the convection, for example). So here is case where you have to judge if the local convection (heating of the side of the mountain we fly) will overpower a light over-the-back wind as you reach the summit of the mountain in flight. I have flown such conditions where everything feels normal on launch and in the LZ (as if a true SW flow) but when you reach the top of the mountain then there is a definite push from the over-the-back wind. As long as the over-the-back wind is light at mountain top height (less than 10 mph), the turbulence at that level will not be too bad, and one can fly with the lofty goal of reaching high altitudes. But if the over-the-back wind is strong (over 10 mph at mountain top height), then you can be spanked by rotors soon after launching and get a nice taste of shearing winds as you near the summit of the mountain.
Conclusion: Today is a gamble for being able to launch, hoping that you get a SW flow due to convection or local base wind. About 25% of being launchable. Then from the above paragraph, be ready for some rotor (soon after launching) and turbulence if you do reach the summit of the montain and over-the-back winds there are significant, so only experienced pilots should expore such conditions.
20% chance of soaring late afternoon. Remember the saying: I have skill & experience, and will use that skill & experience to keep me out of situations where I need my skill & exprience.
Update From what I saw, today was WNW (not good) late afternoon, so not good for soaring, as predicted. At 2 pm I saw a 500? black dust devil on top of the mountain where area was burnt, so wind were probably balanced (over-the-back matched by the convection breeze) at that time on the summit.

Saturday, 2012/9/29
A gamble today… Weather.com which I normally trust, is forecasting a window of WSW (SW would be ideal) between 4 and 6pm, with WNW (not good) before & after. NOAA wind barbs predict WNW for 5 pm. Bad. RASP predicts a NE flow at 5 pm. Bad.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Knowing that yesterday blew WNW all afternoon and temperature expected to rise the next 2 days (building Santa Ana conditions)… Recommendation: Do not drive a long distance to come to Soboba today.

Friday, 2012/9/28
Weather.com predicts WNW (bad) from 3pm to 6pm. But morning sledder should be OK with WSW predicted. 10-day forecast shows bad conditions (Santa Ana offshor flow, 102 F on Monday) until return to favorable wind around next Wednesday and then a string of good days. NOAA wind barbs for 5pm also indicate WNW wind (bad). RASP predict even worse with NE wind between 4 and 6 pm.
15% chance of soaring late afternoon. Unless you want to get morning flights (speed flying), I would not hold much hope today for late afternoon soaring. No need to call in sick at work.

Thursday, 2012/9/27
Sunset at 6:37 pm, so launch time sweet spot is 3:37-5:07 pm (from 3 hours to sunset to 1:30 hour before). Weather.com (San Jacinto hourly forecast) predicts at 4 pm some WSW wind at 8 mph, close to ideal SW wind direction. This forecasting tool has as-good-as or better than NOAA and RASP lately. Not too hot with 85 F predicted. SoaringPredictor predicts SW wind direction. Ideal. NOAA wind barbs predicts an ideal SW surface wind direction at 5 pm. RASP indicates SE wind at 4pm, SSE at 5pm and SSW at 6pm. Bad.
65% chance of soaring late afternoon. Out of the above, I trust most the hourly forecast of Weather.com and the NOAA wind barbs. Looking at the Weather.com 10-day forecast (attached snapshot), rising temperatures relate to Santa Ana conditions (NE flow). The next flyable day may only be Wednesday of next week (Oct 3). So in summary: Get it today while you can.