Background information:

• I will try to update this page around noon, daily. The time on a daily report indicates the last update for a given day (not the first posting time).
• This service was created to help those having to drive far to fly at Soboba. You can keep me motivated by making a donation or asking me to provide your next wing/harness.
• Chance of soaring...
  The focus is on forecasting late afternoon (last 3 hours of daylight) soaring conditions for paragliders. Percentage of chance is for an average PG pilot to be able to gain altitude from the 800' launch (limited hiking) in the last 3 daylight hours and soar for 30+ minutes. Don't expect to see a 100% chance of soaring, it will be about 80% at best. If the chance is 50% or more, I recommend going for it.
  If one's goal is a morning speed flight, most mornings are possible before 10:30 am when thermal activity starts mixing air from different altitudes.
  If one's goal is just a late afternoon speed wing flight or paragliding "sledder", their odds are much better than my soaring (gaining altitude) prediction.
  If one's goal is an early afternoon high-altitude paragliding flight in strong conditions, their odds are better than my late afternoon prediction since one relies more on thermals, less on wind.
  For past days, the percentage is a Hindsight (no longer a guess/forecast).
• Hindsight. These comments are "after the fact". Some likely ones:
  • Good & Sure: It was verified (some did) that one could launch from the 800' (or lower) in last 3 daylight hours and have a 30+ min flight.
  • Good & Guess: Best guess is that it was possible to launch from the 800' (or lower) in last 3 daylight hours and have a 30+ min flight.
  • Bad & Guess: Best guess is that it was not possible to launch from the 800' (or lower) in last 3 daylight hours and have a 30+ min flight.
  • Bad & Sure: It was verified (some tried) that one could not launch from the 800' (or lower) in last 3 daylight hours and have a 30+ min flight.
• Simpler URL for this page: http://www.ExpandingKnowledge.com/SobobaToday
• Forecasting tools: Soboba > Conditions.
• Ideal wind direction for soaring and aligned with the 650' and 1300' launches, is SW (South West). Best wind for training hill and 250' launch is WNW, so what is good for soaring (SW) may not be good for them and vice versa.
• Cross wind direction. Positive angle is clockwise. +45° means wind is 45° from your right on launch. -90° means wind is 90° from your left on launch.
• Santa Ana winds (More info). This happens mostly in autumn and winter, and we experience it at Soboba as ENE wind, and it is usually sunny then. Scenarios based on predicted ENE wind strength at mountain top height:
  • Light: ENE 7 mph or less at mountain top.
    Expect to see very light (1-4 mph) favorable (SW) wind at the 650' launch. Chance of soaring above mountain in convergence from anabatic flow (thermal breeze) and wind from behind. Expect a light horizontal wind shear layer near mountain top height. Likely to need to use a higher launch (800' or 1000') instead of usual 650'. Example: 2013/12/13 flight report. Should be OK for speed flying all day.
  • Moderate: ENE 8-24 mph at mountain top.
    Expect to see a light (5-7 mph) favorable (SW) wind at the 650' launch, due to a combination of rotor and thermal breeze, until an abrupt change around 1-2 hours before sunset. Expect a moderate to strong horizontal wind shear layer near mountain top height. I would personally avoid these conditions. Should be OK for speed flying in early morning (up to 11:00 am).
  • Strong: ENE 25 mph and over at mountain top.
    Expect to see unstable wind directions at the 650' launch. Expect a very strong horizontal wind shear layer near mountain top height. Conditions can become bad at any time during the day. Flying in these conditions is "asking for it". Visualization: YouTube > Wind tunnel experiment of airflow past a 3D-hill.

Friday, 2015/6/12. Hindsight: Bad & Guess. Hindsight condition recording suspended.

Thursday, 2015/6/11. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/6/10. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/6/9. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Monday, 2015/6/8. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/6/7. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/6/6. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Friday, 2015/6/5. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/6/4. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/6/3. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/6/2. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Monday, 2015/6/1. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/5/31. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/5/30. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/5/29. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/5/28. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/5/27. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/5/26. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Monday, 2015/5/25. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/5/24. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/5/23. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/5/22. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/5/21. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/5/20. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/5/19. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Monday, 2015/5/18. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/5/17. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/5/16. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/5/15. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Thursday, 2015/5/14. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Wednesday, 2015/5/13. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/5/12. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Monday, 2015/5/11. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/5/10. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/5/9. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/5/8. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Thursday, 2015/5/7. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/5/6. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/5/5. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Monday, 2015/5/4. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/5/3. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/5/2. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/5/1. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Thursday, 2015/4/30. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Wednesday, 2015/4/29. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Tuesday, 2015/4/28. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Monday, 2015/4/27. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Sunday, 2015/4/26. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/4/25. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/4/24. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/4/23. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/4/22. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/4/21. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Monday, 2015/4/20. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/4/19. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/4/18. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/4/17. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Thursday, 2015/4/16. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/4/15. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Tuesday, 2015/4/14. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Monday, 2015/4/13. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/4/12. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/4/11. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Friday, 2015/4/10. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/4/9. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/4/8. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/4/7. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Monday, 2015/4/6. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/4/5. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/4/4. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Friday, 2015/4/3. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/4/2. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/4/1. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/3/31. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Monday, 2015/3/30. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/3/29. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/3/28. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Friday, 2015/3/27. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/3/26. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/3/25. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/3/24. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Monday, 2015/3/23. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/3/22. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Saturday, 2015/3/21. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Friday, 2015/3/20. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/3/19. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/3/18. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/3/17. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Monday, 2015/3/16. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Sunday, 2015/3/15. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Saturday, 2015/3/14. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Friday, 2015/3/13. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Thursday, 2015/3/12. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Wednesday, 2015/3/11. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/3/10. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Monday, 2015/3/9. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/3/8. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Saturday, 2015/3/7. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Friday, 2015/3/6. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Thursday, 2015/3/5. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Wednesday, 2015/3/4. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/3/3. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Monday, 2015/3/2. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Sunday, 2015/3/1. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/2/28. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Friday, 2015/2/27. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Thursday, 2015/2/26. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Wednesday, 2015/2/25. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Tuesday, 2015/2/24. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Monday, 2015/2/23. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Sunday, 2015/2/22. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/2/21. Hindsight: Good & Guess.

Friday, 2015/2/20. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/2/19. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Wednesday, 2015/2/18. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Tuesday, 2015/2/17. Hindsight: Good & Sure.

Monday, 2015/2/16. Hindsight: Bad & Guess. TFR before 3pm.

Sunday, 2015/2/15. Hindsight: Bad & Sure. TFR.

Saturday, 2015/2/14. Hindsight: Bad & Sure. TFR.

Friday, 2015/2/13. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Thursday, 2015/2/12. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Wednesday, 2015/2/11. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Tuesday, 2015/2/10. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Monday, 2015/2/9. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Sunday, 2015/2/8. Hindsight: Bad & Guess.

Saturday, 2015/2/7. Hindsight: Bad & Sure.

Friday, 2015/2/6. 10:11am
Sunset at 5:23pm. RASP: SW/9knot(10mAlt)/2pm, SW/7/3pm, SW/7/4pm. Weather.com: SW/10mph/2pm, SSW/9/3pm, W/7/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: WSW-W/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: (2 days old) SW/8mph/2pm, SW/8/3pm, SW/7/4pm + 2278' soaring ceiling/2pm.
65% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -22° to +45° cross. SoaringPredictor info is 2 days old. It should be good, I will see you at the hill.
Hindsight: Good & Sure.
Saturday: Maybe: W/6knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Sunday: Maybe: W/4knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Thursday, 2015/2/5. 10:42am
Sunset at 5:22pm. RASP: NE/4knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/4/3pm, SE/4/4pm. Weather.com: NNW/4mph/2pm, WSW/10/3pm, W/6/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: ESE/10knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: (1 day old) W/5mph/2pm, W/5/3pm, NE/5/4pm + 2917' soaring ceiling/2pm.
35% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. RASP puts us in a wind eddy of E 15 mph wind between us and Beaumont. 10:40am observation: NE 9-14 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain).
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Friday: Good: SW/9knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Saturday: Bad: WNW/7knot/3pm. Mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Wednesday, 2015/2/4. 9:13am
Sunset at 5:21pm. RASP: SW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, S/5/3pm, SSE/3/4pm. Weather.com: NW/4mph/2pm, WNW/6/3pm, WNW/6/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: NW/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/6mph/2pm, W/6/3pm, NW/6/4pm + 2278' soaring ceiling/2pm.
45% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -67° to +90° cross. RASP puts us in a wind eddy of E 17 mph wind between us and Beaumont.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Thursday: Bad: WNW/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain. In a wind eddy.
Friday: Good: SW/9knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Tuesday, 2015/2/3. 8:12am
Sunset at 5:20pm. RASP: W-WNW/4knot(10mAlt)/2pm, W-WNW/5/3pm, WNW/4/4pm. Weather.com: WNW/6mph/2pm, W/6/3pm, W/6/4pm, Mostly sunny / Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: WNW/10knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: SW/8mph/2pm, SW/8/3pm, W/9/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
50% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction 0° to +67° cross. If you trust SoaringPredictor the most, then you will be fine. Low soaring ceiling.
Hindsight: Good & Sure. Jean-Noel gets 64 min from 800' launch and reaching 4700' MSL. Darrel gets about 30 min from the 650' launch.
Wednesday: Bad: NNW/4knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Thursday: Bad: NW/3knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Monday, 2015/2/2. 8:10am
Sunset at 5:19pm. RASP: SW/4knot(10mAlt)/2pm, SW/4/3pm, WSW/4/4pm. Weather.com: W/5mph/2pm, W/6/3pm, W/5/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: NW-NNW/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/5mph/2pm, W/5/3pm, NW/2/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
45% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction 0° to +112° cross. RASP predicts 10 mph ENE wind between us and Banning. Light wind predicted. Full sun will help upslope breeze to some extent.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure. Longest flight was 20 min by Jean-Noel.
Tuesday: Maybe: W/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Wednesday: Bad: WNW/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Sunday, 2015/2/1. 8:15am
Sunset at 5:18pm. RASP: WNW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, N/4/3pm, ENE/7/4pm. Weather.com: WNW/4mph/2pm, WNW/5/3pm, WNW/5/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: NW/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/5mph/2pm, W/5/3pm, NW/3/4pm + 2991' soaring ceiling/2pm.
35% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +135° cross. RASP predicts we will be in a wind eddy of ENE wind between us and Banning. Full sun may help local upslope breeze beyond forecasted wind.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Monday: Maybe: W/3knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Tuesday: Maybe: WSW/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Saturday, 2015/1/31. 8:18am
Sunset at 5:17pm. RASP: NNW/3knot(10mAlt)/2pm, N/7/3pm, ENE/15/4pm. Weather.com: NNE/7mph/2pm, NNE/7/3pm, NE/6/4pm, Mostly sunny, 5% chance of rain. NOAA: E/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: N/2mph/2pm, N/2/3pm, N/2/4pm + 2894' soaring ceiling/2pm.
30% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn. Forecast is for light but unfavorable wind direction, maybe local convection can prevail.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Sunday: Maybe: WSW/4knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Monday: Maybe: W/4knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.

Friday, 2015/1/30. 10:09am
Sunset at 5:16pm. RASP: W/8knot(10mAlt)/2pm, SW/5/3pm, S/7/4pm. Weather.com: SE/6mph/2pm, Calm/0/3pm, NW/5/4pm, Mostly cloudy / Cloudy / Showers, 10-35% chance of rain. NOAA: W/10knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: SW/8mph/2pm, SW/8/3pm, SW/10/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
35% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -90° to +90° cross. Cloudiness reducing thermals. Chance of rain. 10:02am observation: NE 12-21 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain).
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Saturday: Maybe: Var/1knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 5% chance of rain. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn.
Sunday: Maybe: SSW/4knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Thursday, 2015/1/29. 12:18pm
Sunset at 5:15pm. RASP: S/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, S/5/3pm, S/6/4pm. Weather.com: SW/12mph/2pm, SSW/4/3pm, SSW/3/4pm, Cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: W/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: SE/12mph/2pm, SE/12/3pm, SE/10/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -90° to +45° cross. Cloudiness reducing thermals. 12:09pm observation: ESE 6-7 mph near 650' launch. 12:13pm observation: NE 15-26 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Friday: Bad: SW/4knot/3pm. Showers, 40% chance of rain. NW/10not/4pm.
Saturday: Bad: WNW/5knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 20% chance of rain. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn.

Wednesday, 2015/1/28. 10:46am
Sunset at 5:14pm. RASP: ENE/10knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/12/3pm, ENE/17/4pm. Weather.com: ENE/8mph/2pm, ENE/14/3pm, N/6/4pm, Partly cloudy / Mostly cloudy / Cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/15knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: NE/15mph/2pm, NE/15/3pm, NE/17/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
15% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. Cloudiness reducing thermals. 10:45am observation: NE 20-29 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Thursday: Bad: NNE/5knot/3pm. Cloudy, 5% chance of rain. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn.
Friday: Bad: NNE/5knot/3pm. Showers, 60% chance of rain.

Tuesday, 2015/1/27. 9:45am
Sunset at 5:13pm. RASP: W/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, WNW/5/3pm, WNW/5/4pm. Weather.com: SW/3mph/2pm, WNW/6/3pm, WNW/5/4pm, Sunny / Mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/10knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: N/3mph/2pm, N/3/3pm, NE/9/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
35% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -135° to +180° cross. Despite sunshine, humid ground reducing thermals. 9:43am observation: NE 10-14 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Light to Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Wednesday: Bad: ENE/15knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.
Thursday: Bad: ENE/9knot/3pm. Cloudy, 20% chance of rain.

Monday, 2015/1/26. 12:45pm
Sunset at 5:12pm. RASP: ENE/27knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/25/3pm, ENE/25/4pm. Weather.com: NE/19mph/2pm, NE/14/3pm, ENE/13/4pm, Cloudy, 0-25% chance of rain. NOAA: E/15knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: NE/20mph/2pm, NE/20/3pm, E/15/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
3% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 12:43pm observation: NE 25-40 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate to Strong Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Tuesday: Bad: N/7knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Wednesday: Bad: ENE/17knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.

Sunday, 2015/1/25. 12:31pm
Sunset at 5:11pm. RASP: E-ENE/23knot(10mAlt)/2pm, E-ENE/23/3pm, E-ENE/31/4pm. Weather.com: ENE/35mph/2pm, E/26/3pm, E/27/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/20knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/30mph/2pm, E/30/3pm, E/26/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
3% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to -135° cross. Easy job to make predictions this weekend. 12:29pm observation: E 23-38 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Strong Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Monday: Bad: ESE/6knot/3pm. Showers, 40-60% chance of rain between 2-4pm.
Tuesday: Bad: WNW/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Saturday, 2015/1/24. 11:26am
Sunset at 5:10pm. RASP: ENE/39knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/38/3pm, ENE/39/4pm. Weather.com: ENE/36mph/2pm, E/36/3pm, E/30/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/20knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/36mph/2pm, E/36/3pm, E/24/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
2% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to -135° cross. 11:23am observation: E 23-51 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Strong Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Sunday: Bad: E/22knot/3pm. Mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Monday: Bad: ENE/18knot/3pm. Showers, 60% chance of rain.

Friday, 2015/1/23. 10:30am
Sunset at 5:09pm. RASP: ENE/18knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/16/3pm, ENE/12/4pm. Weather.com: ENE/28mph/2pm, ENE/27/3pm, N/11/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: ENE/15knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: NE/21mph/2pm, NE/21/3pm, NE/17/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
15% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 10:27am observation: NE 20-34 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Saturday: Bad: ENE/24knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Sunday: Bad: ENE/33knot/3pm. Mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Thursday, 2015/1/22. 11:33am
Sunset at 5:08pm. RASP: ENE/35knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/33/3pm, ENE/33/4pm. Weather.com: ENE/15mph/2pm, NE/14/3pm, ENE/15/4pm, Cloudy / Mostly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/25knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: NE/29mph/2pm, NE/29/3pm, NE/26/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
10% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 11:29am observation: NE 12-18 mph near 650' launch. 11:30am observation: NE 16-27 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Strong Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Friday: Bad: ENE/19knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Saturday: Bad: E/33knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Wednesday, 2015/1/21. 9:51am
Sunset at 5:07pm. RASP: W/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, W/3/3pm, S/4/4pm. Weather.com: SSE/7mph/2pm, SE/9/3pm, NNW/7/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: ESE/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/5mph/2pm, W/5/3pm, SE/2/4pm + 2913' soaring ceiling/2pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -112° to +112° cross. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Thursday: Bad: ENE/32knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.
Friday: Bad: ENE/23knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Tuesday, 2015/1/20. Hindsight: Good & Sure. Jean-Noel gets 33 min from 650' launch and reaching higher than 800' over LZ, 10 min for Charles & Bill. Jordan got 25 min after hiking to 1450' launch.

Monday, 2015/1/19. Hindsight: Bad & Guess

Sunday, 2015/1/18. Hindsight: Bad & Guess

Saturday, 2015/1/17. Hindsight: Bad & Sure

Friday, 2015/1/16. 8:04am
Sunset at 5:03pm. RASP: ENE/13knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/12/3pm, ENE/13/4pm. Weather.com: NNW/4mph/2pm, NNW/4/3pm, NNW/3/4pm, Mostly sunny / Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: ENE/15knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/10mph/2pm, E/10/3pm, NE/13/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 8:02am observation: ENE 14-23 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess. Recorded conditions of weak wind and poor direction at times.
Saturday: Maybe: SSE/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain. In a wind eddy from E wind in Banning pass.
Sunday: Bad: WNW/3knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.

Thursday, 2015/1/15. 10:09am
Sunset at 5:02pm. RASP: ENE/17knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/19/3pm, ENE/19/4pm. Weather.com: N/5mph/2pm, NW/6/3pm, NE/5/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/20knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/22mph/2pm, E/22/3pm, E/21/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
20% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 10:05am observation: ENE 16-33 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess. As expected, recorded conditions became progressively worse after 3:30 pm.
Friday: Bad: ENE/13knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Saturday: Maybe: S/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain. In a wind eddy from ENE wind in Banning pass.

Wednesday, 2015/1/14. 8:09am
Sunset at 5:01pm. RASP: NW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, WNW/5/3pm, W/5/4pm. Weather.com: NNW/5mph/2pm, NNW/6/3pm, NNW/5/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/20knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/16mph/2pm, E/16/3pm, E/16/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -135° to +112° cross. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Thursday: Bad: ENE/19knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Friday: Bad: ENE/17knot/3pm. Mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Tuesday, 2015/1/13. Evening before
Sunset at 5:00pm. RASP: E/8knot(10mAlt)/2pm, E/7/3pm, E/3/4pm. Weather.com: NNW/7mph/2pm, N/7/3pm, N/5/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: ENE/10knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: S/5mph/2pm, S/5/3pm, E/10/4pm + 3345' soaring ceiling/2pm.
40% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +135° cross. All forecasts taken the evening before (no time in the morning). In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Wednesday: Bad: ESE/7knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Thursday: Bad: E/21knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Monday, 2015/1/12. Evening before
Sunset at 4:58pm. RASP: SW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, SW/4/3pm, SW/3/4pm. Weather.com: WNW/5mph/2pm, WNW/5/3pm, W/4/4pm, Mostly sunny / Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: NW/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/6mph/2pm, W/6/3pm, NW/7/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
45% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction 0° to +90° cross. All forecasts taken the evening before (no time in the morning). Light wind, questionable direction.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Tuesday: Bad: SSE/7knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn.
Wednesday: Bad: NE/15knot/3pm. Mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Sunday, 2015/1/11. Evening before
Sunset at 4:57pm. RASP: SSW/4knot(10mAlt)/2pm, Var/3/3pm, SE/3/4pm. Weather.com: ESE/3mph/2pm, NW/4/3pm, NW/3/4pm, Showers, 40-45% chance of rain. NOAA: ENE/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: SW/3mph/2pm, SW/3/3pm, N/1/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +135° cross. All forecasts taken the evening before (no time in the morning). Rain likely.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure. Rain on/off until late afternoon.
Monday: Maybe: W/5knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Tuesday: Bad: NE/8knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Saturday, 2015/1/10. Evening before
Sunset at 4:57pm. RASP: WSW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, W/5/3pm, W/4/4pm. Weather.com: WSW/5mph/2pm, WSW/6/3pm, WSW/5/4pm, Partly cloudy / Mostly cloudy, 5% chance of rain. NOAA: S/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: SW/6mph/2pm, SW/6/3pm, SW/5/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
40% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -45° to +45° cross. All forecasts taken the evening before (no time in the morning). Light wind. Cloudiness will reduce thermals.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure. A 5 min flight for Jean-Noel.
Sunday: Bad: ENE/15knot/3pm. Showers, 50% chance of rain.
Monday: Maybe: SW/5knot/3pm. Mostly sunny, 10% chance of rain.

Friday, 2015/1/9. 11:07am
Sunset at 4:56pm. RASP: WSW/3knot(10mAlt)/2pm, W/3/3pm, NE/8/4pm. Weather.com: WSW/5mph/2pm, W/5/3pm, W/3/4pm, Mostly cloudy / Cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: Calm/0knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/3mph/2pm, W/3/3pm, W/1/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
30% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction +22° to +180° cross. Light wind. Cloudiness will reduce thermals.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Saturday: Maybe: W/5knot/3pm. Mostly cloudy, 10% chance of rain.
Sunday: Bad: ENE/15knot/3pm. Showers, 50% chance of rain.

Thursday, 2015/1/8. 11:57am
Sunset at 4:55pm. RASP: SW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, SW/5/3pm, SW/5/4pm. Weather.com: SW/4mph/2pm, SW/6/3pm, SW/4/4pm, Partly cloudy / Mostly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: ESE/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/2mph/2pm, W/2/3pm, S/1/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
40% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -112° to +45° cross. Light wind. Cloudiness will reduce thermals.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess. It was sunnier than forecasted, but wind strength remained marginal.
Friday: Maybe: SW/3knot/3pm. Mostly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.
Saturday: Maybe: WSW/5knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 20% chance of rain.

Wednesday, 2015/1/7. 11:42am
Sunset at 4:54pm. RASP: E/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/8/3pm, ENE/12/4pm. Weather.com: NW/5mph/2pm, SW/4/3pm, S/3/4pm, Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/15knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/8mph/2pm, NE/8/3pm, NE/12/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
25% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 11:40am observation: NE 21-28 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Thursday: Bad: E/6knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.
Friday: Maybe: Var/4knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.

Tuesday, 2015/1/6. 8:09am
Sunset at 4:54pm. RASP: ENE/24knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/24/3pm, ENE/22/4pm. Weather.com: NE/7mph/2pm, NE/7/3pm, NE/7/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/20knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/22mph/2pm, NE/22/3pm, NE/22/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
20% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 8:08am observation: NE 19-32 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess. Recorded wind near 650' launch shows deteriorating conditions after 2pm.
Wednesday: Bad: E/12knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Thursday: Bad: Var/4knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. In a wind eddy.

Monday, 2015/1/5. 8:10am
Sunset at 4:53pm. RASP: ENE/26knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/26/3pm, ENE/24/4pm. Weather.com: NE/7mph/2pm, NE/8/3pm, NE/7/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/25knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/22mph/2pm, E/22/3pm, NE/22/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
15% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. 8:08am observation: NE 23-33 mph at Poppet Flats (behind mountain). Warning: Moderate to Strong Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Tuesday: Bad: ENE/22knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Wednesday: Bad: E/8knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.

Sunday, 2015/1/4. 8:09am
Sunset at 4:52pm. RASP: ENE/14knot(10mAlt)/2pm, ENE/15/3pm, ENE/16/4pm. Weather.com: NNE/4mph/2pm, NNE/3/3pm, NE/3/4pm, Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: ENE/15knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: E/5mph/2pm, E/5/3pm, NE/13/4pm + 2664' soaring ceiling/2pm.
30% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +180° cross. Warning: Moderate Santa Ana winds.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure.
Monday: Bad: E/16knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Tuesday: Bad: ENE/15knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Saturday, 2015/1/3. 8:10am
Sunset at 4:51pm. RASP: WSW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, W/5/3pm, W/4/4pm. Weather.com: WNW/4mph/2pm, WNW/5/3pm, WNW/4/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: WNW/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: W/5mph/2pm, W/5/3pm, W/3/4pm + 3124' soaring ceiling/2pm.
45% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction +22° to +67° cross. Last cold day. Predicted wind direction not ideal. Best chance is to launch early and from a higher launch.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Sunday: Bad: ENE/13knot/3pm. Partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain.
Monday: Bad: ENE/18knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.

Friday, 2015/1/2. 8:10am
Sunset at 4:50pm. RASP: SW/5knot(10mAlt)/2pm, SW/4/3pm, SSW/4/4pm. Weather.com: WNW/4mph/2pm, WNW/4/3pm, NW/3/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: Calm/0knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: SW/5mph/2pm, SW/5/3pm, SW/2/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
45% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -22° to +90° cross. Low soaring ceiling predicted by RASP. Light wind, but in a favorable direction. Full sun is best hope for thermals and sufficient upslope breeze. Cold, 54 F max in LZ at 2-3pm.
Hindsight: Bad & Sure. But lots of short flight by students & pilots. Mike had a 19 min PG flight from the 1450' launch aroud 1pm.
Saturday: Maybe: Var/4knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain. In a wind eddy of 13 mph E wind between us and Banning. Last cold day.
Sunday: Bad: ENE/14knot/3pm. Mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain. Warmer temperatures from this day on.

Thursday, 2015/1/1. 11:58am
Sunset at 4:50pm. RASP: W/4knot(10mAlt)/2pm, W/4/3pm, E/4/4pm. Weather.com: N/2mph/2pm, ENE/1/3pm, Calm/0/4pm, Sunny, 0% chance of rain. NOAA: E/5knot/4pm. SoaringPredictor: S/2mph/2pm, S/2/3pm, E/6/4pm + 2260' soaring ceiling/2pm.
40% chance of soaring late afternoon. Comment(s): Wind direction -158° to +135° cross. In the lee of North wind split by San Gorgonio Mtn. Max of 48 F at 3pm.
Hindsight: Bad & Guess.
Friday: Maybe: WSW/4knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain.
Saturday: Bad: S/4knot/3pm. Sunny, 0% chance of rain. In a wind eddy of 15 mph E wind between us and Banning.

2014 Forecasting

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